What is your new EOY prediction?


#1

Bye bye 2018, a terrible year for crypto.
in 2019, what is your new eoy prediction?

It’s hard to be optimistic in this current market trend, but I’m still hoping for triple digits Ela
(please don’t shoot me)


#2

Honestly I think 3 digits is pushing it. Realistically I see ELA being at $10-$30 by the end of the year depending on market conditions. It could also get as high as $40-$60 with some good partnerships/developments/better exchanges. If a bull run happens and ELA is ready then yes i could see $100 plus. However i am not optimistic for that to happen but its all speculation so who knows right?


#3

I feel like 3 digits is way too much : the network itself will not catch that much value in a single year and since this is a utility token, its value depends on what transacts on the network.

A digital marketplace could help drive the value up but to what level ? Hard to tell ! I would rather have an organic growth driven by value than by speculation because a new bull run is in the air. I hope we remain in this bear market for a while so that we can build without going crazy about prices.

Ultimately I would expect ELA to rise a lot in sat value.


#4

Really hard to predict EOY. But if:

  1. elastos infrastructure is delivered as planned
  2. elastos improves its marketing and attracts/incentivizes developers to develop on the platform
  3. elastos delivers on a few key partnerships (whether viewchain, or maybe a new one that hasn’t happened yet)
  4. elastos is actively engaged with its community through frequent updates, interviews, AMA, livestreams, etc.
  5. elastos gets itself listed on Binance or other major exchanges (less of a priority than 1-4)

Then, when that happens (not necessarily EOY 2019), elastos will be very successful.

If we assume this all happens in 4 years and that at that point it’ll be #10 on CMC, and that total supply will be ~40 million and circulating will be around 25 million, and…

We assume 10th coin on CMC will have 1% of total market share (which is about what the current 10th place coin has) and that total crypto market cap is 3 trillion.

1% x 3 trillion = 30 billion

30 billion / 25 mil (circ. Supply) = $1200

The priority should be to make sure #1-4 happen. Then #5 will take care of itself and token will appreciate it both utility and value.


#5

Your logic is sound. The execution by the team to get 1-5 done effectively and smartly is what is in question. I believe they can however i need to see more of the actual product to be as confident as i once was. I have been burned by this bear market which has made me a little gun shy and asking more critical questions. I truly think this project has the potential to do everything you said but i want to see the beta.


#6

For sure, there’s the risk that they do not pull it off. I cannot wait to see the beta also.

If you had to assign a probability to this happening the way I described though, what would you say it is? 10%? 33%? 50%? More? Less?

Let’s say 10% for arguments sake. I’ve played poker for a living for several years before so I’m trained to look at things from an expected value perspective (or the average outcome). So if 10% of the time, the scenario I described happens, and 90% of the time, something happens to make the investment go to zero.

So the expected value of an ELA token in 4 years is 0.10 x $1200 = $120

So in other words, if you believe the above scenario happens 10% of the time and 90% of the time you lose your investment, then, for every $3 you spend on an ELA token, you will on average have $120 in expected value in 4 years.

But, I’m with you, I can’t wait to see the beta and am hoping to be impressed. In the meantime, I’m accumulating as much as I can because I believe the expected value of this investment is massive :slight_smile:

This FUD period (along with the bear market in general) is what’s giving us an opportunity to accumulate ELA for $2-3. We may not get this chance again. We may look back in a couple years at early 2019 and it’d be like some people who were on the fence about bitcoin in its early days looking back today and wishing that they hadn’t let the Silk Road (or any other FUD) blur their vision of bitcoins potential.


#7

Another terrible year for crypto
ha

But a good year for development


#8

2019 ~ “If we build it, they will come”

???


#9

Le jour ou le produit se transforme en marcher la valeur prendra forme. Le prix n’a pas réellement d’importance seul l’évolution technologie et le travaille des fondation sont important .Le marcher travaille ces fondation actuellement . JE SAIT UNE CHOSE SUR LE COURS CES QU’IL RETROUVERA SONT PRIX DEPART D’ICI 2 ANS :wink::wink::wink:


#10

The day the product is transformed into walking the value will take shape. The price does not really matter only the evolution technology and the work of the foundations are important. The walk works these foundation currently. I KNOW A THING ON THE COURSE THOSE IT WILL FIND ARE PRICE STARTING BY 2 YEARS


#11

$589. Just kidding

Firstly I think we’ll going down to as low as $1.5. I think the parabolic bull run won’t come yet to crypto this year as whales are still accumulating. I think the whole market cap could only go up to $200B-ish or twice of the moment. Realistically by that time ELA could up 10-20x for the most (that’s like $20-50).
2020 is the real deal.